The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed a strategic draft for the country's steel industry until 2030. According to the document, it will take approximately eight years to adapt to the sanctions and restore the industry's indicators to the level of 2019-2020.

The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade predicts that by 2030, domestic steel consumption and exports will return to the levels of 2019-2020, but Russian suppliers can only increase import substitution by 6.4%. Under optimistic circumstances, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade predicts that its steel production in 2022 will decrease by 11% year-on-year to 59 million tons, domestic consumption will decrease by 13.8% to 35.6 million tons, and exports will decrease by 15.9% to 23.8 million tons.

This strategic draft includes two stages: the adaptation phase from 2024 to 2025 and the recovery phase before 2030. In the first stage, it is necessary to implement measures to cope with the pressure of sanctions, initiate projects to stimulate Russian steel consumption, and clarify that restoring the destroyed facilities in Donbass requires steel products. The second stage involves the implementation of infrastructure development projects, including transporting Russian energy to new destinations. The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade predicts that the domestic steel industry will stabilize and form a new supply chain.

According to the draft, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has listed the issue of finding alternatives to Western equipment as one of the challenges facing the steel industry, and completely replacing steel equipment imports may take at least 10-12 years. The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade specifically pointed out that almost all equipment on the entire value chain comes from "unfriendly countries". "Russia lags behind world leaders in steelmaking technology, sintering machine flue gas circulation equipment, and rolling mills, and does not have domestically produced equipment such as galvanized production lines, color coating production lines, and heating furnaces, especially the majority of rolling mill rolls that need to be imported." The Russian commercial newspaper "Businessman" quoted the draft document as saying.

However, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasizes that domestic steel companies are gradually starting to replace foreign imported components crucial for steel manufacturing with similar products. For example, the Russian market has already mastered the production technology of some equipment, and some equipment is imported from Asian countries. It is also feasible to purchase important equipment through third countries, but the quality and cost of these substitutes still exist. In June, the large Russian steel mining conglomerate Xavier stated that in terms of components, the company currently needs to replace nearly 17000 imported components, which is a huge quantity and requires time.

The difficulty in equipment supply will have a significant impact on the development of steel enterprises. Yefraz announced in early August that the upgrade of the rail rolling mill at NTMK will be postponed by one year. It is reported that the estimated investment for the project is 210 million US dollars, and it was originally planned to be completed in 2024. Danieli has been selected as the main supplier. Xavier had previously stated the need to review the project development plan, but the environmental protection project will continue to advance. However, the available equipment performance will have an impact on the project's progress. NLMK also stated that some of its plans will be modified, and some investment projects involving foreign imported equipment in the early stages of implementation will be postponed.

However, the above-mentioned 2030 strategic draft for the steel industry is currently only preliminary, and the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade is still working with other departments and industry organizations in the country to complete the formulation.

There are also reports that Denis, the Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia? During a meeting with steel industry executives and President Putin on August 1st, Manturov discussed the urgent need for Russia to reduce its steel consumption tax and called for a reduction in the Mineral Mining Tax (MET) on iron ore and coking coal, citing the sharp deterioration of the Russian steel and steelmaking raw material market and the financial performance of steel companies in the first half of this year. Manturov believes that it is reasonable to impose a consumption tax when steel prices rise, but now with the continuous decline in steel prices and the decline in steel plant operating rates, corporate profits have declined. With industry income being excessively squeezed, the consumption tax has actually transformed into a tax on income. For the same reason, the development tax for coking coal and iron ore should also be revised downwards.

The resolution of this meeting has not yet been made public, but steel companies are waiting to draft tax reduction laws. However, sources say that the steel consumption tax will not be completely abolished.